Bull Markets vs Bear Markets: What They Mean and How Long They Last

The current bull market is roughly 3.5 years old, having started in October 2022. The S&P 500 has roughly doubled from its bottom. Headlines ask the same question every week: is the end near? The honest answer is nobody knows. But history gives us a framework that makes the question less frightening.

"Bull market" and "bear market" are terms most people use without knowing the technical definitions, the typical durations, or what the data says about recovery times. Understanding these patterns is the difference between panicking at every market dip and staying invested through cycles.

This post covers what bull and bear markets actually are, how long they typically last based on 90-plus years of data, how long recoveries take, and what this means for your investment strategy.

What Bull and Bear Markets Actually Are

A bear market is a decline of 20% or more from a recent peak, measured on a closing basis. A bull market is a rise of 20% or more from a recent trough, typically defined as the period between a bear market bottom and the next 20% decline.

Corrections are different. A correction is a decline of 10% to 19%. These happen frequently within bull markets and are not technically bear markets, though they still hurt. The 20% threshold is a convention, not a natural law. Some analysts use 19% or 15%. The key point is that a bear market is a significant, sustained decline, not a bad week.

One important detail: bull and bear markets are identified retroactively. The market is considered in a bear market until it rises 20% from the trough, at which point a new bull market begins. You do not get a notification that the bull market has started. You only know after the fact.

The SEC's investor.gov glossary provides formal definitions for both terms. For a deeper dive, see our bear market glossary entry and bull market glossary entry.

How Long Bull Markets Last

Since 1942, there have been 12 distinct bull markets in the S&P 500, including the current one. According to First Trust data covering daily returns through June 2026, the average bull market lasted 4.4 years with an average cumulative total return of 152.8%.

The shortest bull markets last around 2 years and can gain as little as 50%. The longest on record ran from March 2009 to February 2020, lasting 11 years with gains of approximately 400%.

The current bull market, which began in October 2022, is roughly 3.5 years old with gains of approximately 100%. If this cycle aligns with historical averages, it could have approximately 2 more years and rise another 50% from current levels. That is not a prediction. It is just what the averages suggest.

Seven of the eleven previous bull markets saw the S&P 500 double at some point. On average, they lasted another 3 years after doubling, gaining a further 80%. However, three ended less than 6 months after doubling, which is a reminder that averages hide a wide range of outcomes.

For more on how market downturns work mechanically, see our guide on what happens when the market crashes.

How Long Bear Markets Last

Bear markets are shorter than most people think. Since 1929, the average S&P 500 bear market has lasted about 286 days, roughly 9.5 months, according to analysis from Bespoke Investment Group referenced in Motley Fool's April 2026 review.

Since 1942, First Trust data shows the average bear market lasted 11.1 months with an average cumulative loss of -31.7%. Since 1932, Stifel/Strategas data shows the average bear market lasted 1.5 years with an average cumulative loss of -35.1%. The difference comes from whether you include the Great Depression era, which drags the averages higher.

The decline itself is usually much shorter than the recovery. Bear markets fall fast and recover slowly. Here is every S&P 500 bear market since 1929, based on data from SimianX's complete reference table:

Excluding the Great Depression, which is a genuine outlier, bear markets since 1945 took an average of about 3 years to recover to a new high, with a median closer to 2 years.

The Asymmetry That Matters

The most important pattern in this data is the asymmetry between bull and bear markets.

Bull markets are longer than bear markets. The average bull market lasts 4.4 years. The average bear market lasts 9 to 11 months. The stock market spends roughly 78% of its time in bull territory since 1950, according to Westmount Fundamentals analysis of S&P 500 data.

Bull markets gain more than bear markets lose. Average bull gain: 152.8%. Average bear loss: 31.7%.

The math of recovery explains why deep bear markets take longer to bounce back. A 33% decline requires a 49% gain to break even. A 50% decline requires a 100% gain. A 57% decline, like the 2007-2009 financial crisis, requires a 133% gain. This is why the deepest bear markets have the longest recovery times.

The practical implication is straightforward. If you hold through the bear market, you participate in the recovery automatically. If you sell during the bear market, you must time two decisions correctly: when to sell and when to buy back. Most investors get both wrong.

Research from J.P. Morgan Asset Management has shown that missing the 10 best trading days in a decade, which often occur during the most volatile periods near bear market bottoms, reduces total returns by roughly half. The best days and the worst days tend to cluster together. Selling to avoid the worst days usually means missing the best ones too.

For a strategy that works through cycles, see our guide on dollar-cost averaging and our post on why fear of investing keeps people poor.

Bull vs Bear Markets by the Numbers

Real-World Examples

Example: The October 2007 peak buyer

Situation: An investor bought $100,000 in an S&P 500 index fund at the market peak in October 2007, right before the financial crisis.

What happened: Their portfolio fell 56.8% by March 2009, dropping to approximately $43,200. For 17 months, they watched nearly half their savings vanish. Every financial headline predicted worse to come.

Result: If they held, they broke even by early 2013, about 5.5 years after the peak. By 2024, their original $100,000 had grown to over $500,000. Total time underwater: about 5.5 years. Total time to significant wealth: about 13 years. The investor who sold at the bottom in March 2009 locked in a $56,800 loss and missed the longest bull market in history.

Example: The January 2022 peak buyer

Situation: An investor bought $50,000 in an S&P 500 index fund at the January 2022 peak, right before the inflation bear market.

What happened: Their portfolio fell 25.4% to approximately $37,300 by October 2022. Nine months of decline driven by rate hikes and inflation fears.

Result: If they held, they broke even by January 2024, about 24.5 months after the peak. By mid-2026, their $50,000 had grown to approximately $100,000. The bear market lasted 9 months. The recovery took 24.5 months. The bull market that followed is still running.

Common Mistakes Investors Make With Market Cycles

Assuming a long bull market means a crash is "due." Markets do not have expiration dates. The 2009-2020 bull market lasted 11 years. The current one is 3.5 years old. Age alone does not predict termination.

Selling at the first sign of a bear market. The decline is usually shorter than the recovery. Selling locks in the loss and misses the recovery, which often begins before the headlines confirm the bear market is over.

Waiting for the "all clear" before buying back in. The strongest gains typically come in the early recovery, before economic data confirms the bear market is over. By the time things look safe, you have missed the biggest moves.

Treating a 10% correction as a bear market. Corrections are normal and happen frequently within bull markets. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a correction approximately every 1.8 years on average. They are not the same as bear markets.

Confusing market cycles with economic cycles. The stock market typically peaks 6 to 8 months before a recession starts and bottoms 3 to 6 months before a recession ends. The market is forward-looking. Waiting for economic confirmation means you are always late. For more on this distinction, see our post on what is a recession.

The Bottom Line

Bull markets last years and gain 150% or more on average. Bear markets last months and lose 31% to 35% on average. The asymmetry favors the patient investor.

The data is clear. Time in the market beats timing the market. The worst bear markets in history eventually recovered. The investors who lost the most were the ones who sold during the decline. For help staying disciplined through cycles, read our guide on how to rebalance your portfolio.

If market headlines are making you nervous, look at the historical data. Then check that your automatic investments are still running and read our guide on what happens when the market crashes.

This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Historical market data does not guarantee future results. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.